Let's Japan.org Debunking Eikaiwa and Ramblings in Japan

As was reported last week, Japan's fertility rate is up but the population is still in decline:

Japan's fertility rate edged up for a third consecutive year in 2008, three years after dropping to a record low of 1.26 in 2005, the health ministry said Wednesday.

The total fertility rate, or the estimated number of children a woman would bear in her lifetime based on current birth trends, rose 0.03 point to an average of 1.37 compared with a year ago.

[...]

Meanwhile, deaths rose to a record of 1.14 million, up 34,133 from a year ago and the highest since 1947, as mortality continued to outpace births.

This resulted in the population shrinking by a record 51,317 in 2008 — the steepest fall ever.

Japan's population shrank by 18,516 in 2007.

Meanwhile, the writing's on the wall:

A vacant elementary school in Niikappu, Hokkaido, that was put up for sale online has been purchased by an Osaka-based operator of spas and hot springs.

With a successful bid of ¥30 million, Mitaka Club hopes to turn the school into an art museum, according to town officials.

Good luck with that.

No buyers have stepped forward for the three other buildings, but the town, a two-hour drive from Sapporo, is currently negotiating their possible sale with a Hokkaido educational foundation, municipal officials said.

"I am happy that we put the facilities for sale online to reinvigorate the local community," said Mayor Kuniaki Kotake. "It sets a precedent for the future."

Niikappu's population, which stood at 5,901 at the end of March, has been declining for the past decade, especially in the number of children, prompting the town to close seven of its nine elementary schools in April 2008.

No buyers for the three other buildings up for sale, 7 of 9 elementary schools closed, and a population in decline for a decade. The mayor's happy he used the internet to sell a building, but I wonder why the new owner thinks buying an empty school is a good idea. How viable is an art museum in a shrinking town? Maybe he has plans for a giant ferris wheel, like the one in Kamifurano.

Niikappu illustrates is the severity of Japan's demographic problem. While the population continues to concentrate in urban areas, the hinterlands are becoming barren. There won't be any redevelopment of buildings and towns if there's nobody around to live in them.

Ｉt's not as if this problem snuck up on Japan, either. The fertility rate peaked in the 1970s (report in Japanese), but the government chose to ignore the problem instead of thinking about ways to mitigate it. Now reality has taken over and the best they can do is hope men take more time off to make babies. Niikappu is just one of many soon-to-be-ghost towns that will suffer a fate much like that of Yubari.