You are here
Decay
As was reported last week, Japan's fertility rate is up but the population is still in decline:
Japan's fertility rate edged up for a third consecutive year in 2008, three years after dropping to a record low of 1.26 in 2005, the health ministry said Wednesday.
The total fertility rate, or the estimated number of children a woman would bear in her lifetime based on current birth trends, rose 0.03 point to an average of 1.37 compared with a year ago.
[...]
Meanwhile, deaths rose to a record of 1.14 million, up 34,133 from a year ago and the highest since 1947, as mortality continued to outpace births.
This resulted in the population shrinking by a record 51,317 in 2008 — the steepest fall ever.
Japan's population shrank by 18,516 in 2007.
Meanwhile, the writing's on the wall:
A vacant elementary school in Niikappu, Hokkaido, that was put up for sale online has been purchased by an Osaka-based operator of spas and hot springs.
With a successful bid of ¥30 million, Mitaka Club hopes to turn the school into an art museum, according to town officials.
Good luck with that.
No buyers have stepped forward for the three other buildings, but the town, a two-hour drive from Sapporo, is currently negotiating their possible sale with a Hokkaido educational foundation, municipal officials said.
"I am happy that we put the facilities for sale online to reinvigorate the local community," said Mayor Kuniaki Kotake. "It sets a precedent for the future."
Niikappu's population, which stood at 5,901 at the end of March, has been declining for the past decade, especially in the number of children, prompting the town to close seven of its nine elementary schools in April 2008.
No buyers for the three other buildings up for sale, 7 of 9 elementary schools closed, and a population in decline for a decade. The mayor's happy he used the internet to sell a building, but I wonder why the new owner thinks buying an empty school is a good idea. How viable is an art museum in a shrinking town? Maybe he has plans for a giant ferris wheel, like the one in Kamifurano.
Niikappu illustrates is the severity of Japan's demographic problem. While the population continues to concentrate in urban areas, the hinterlands are becoming barren. There won't be any redevelopment of buildings and towns if there's nobody around to live in them.
Ｉt's not as if this problem snuck up on Japan, either. The fertility rate peaked in the 1970s (report in Japanese), but the government chose to ignore the problem instead of thinking about ways to mitigate it. Now reality has taken over and the best they can do is hope men take more time off to make babies. Niikappu is just one of many soon-to-be-ghost towns that will suffer a fate much like that of Yubari.
Comments
Ｉt's not as if this problem snuck up on Japan, either. The fertility rate peaked in the 1970s (report in Japanese), but the government chose to ignore the problem instead of thinking about ways to mitigate it.
Well put. I've been harping on this for some time. But:
Now reality has taken over and the best they can do is hope men take more time off to make babies.
Reality is here, but it hasn't taken over just yet. The continued effect of population decline is going to make any government unable to last long. To take one example, the consumption tax is going to have to be raised in order to make up for shortfalls in social insurance funds. But, politicians just can't do it; they are scared of public reaction. Instead of laying out a plan for gradual increases (say 1% a year for five years, something that won't matter as much if a new government comes into power), they've stuck their heads in the sand. FY2008 tax revenue turned out to be 8% below what was projected by the Ministry of Finance. Oops. Another shortfall. Add 1% to the consumption tax in FY2008 and that problem starts to solve itself.
Hi Ken,
Interesting that you bring up the consumption tax. I agree it has to be raised in order for the government to fund things pensions and provide services, but the timing of all this has the makings of a Shakespearean tragedy.
While they are desperately trying to boost consumption (to what level is anybody's guess) with things like the Y12,000 payout, cheaper highway tolls, and "eco-points," they are talking about raising the consumption at the same time. This practically guarantees failure. At best, there will be a short-term blip in consumption followed by long-term stagnation as people hold onto their cash in the face of higher taxes.
The same thing happened when the consumption tax was bumped up from 3% to 5%. To me, it demonstrates that the Aso government has no plan or vision for the future other than to hope that things somehow magically return to the days before the financial meltdown.
Shawn
Something needs to be done about the fertility rate in Japan. All you eikwa pimps need to stop pulling out and fertilize those precious seeds. It's your duty to save the mighty NIPPON islands. Your HAFU bastard kids can be the next generation of proud eikwa industrial leaders.
Shawn,
I agree with you about the problems with the 3-5% rise in the consumption tax. That's why I think a gradual incease will be much smoother. When the 0-3% and 3-5% increases were put in, people spent a ton in the lead-up to the increases, but spending dropped off after. Gradual 1% increases should mitigate that factor to some degree. If people spend a ton leading up to the increase, that's ok - since it's going to happen again next year anyway.
A government panel recently announced that consumption tax rates will have to be raised to 12% to support the social insurance system. If nothing else, it's going to make for great theatre.
So we'll be having 99 car parking attendents to waive you into a space rather than 100 - big difference
Ken,
A gradual increase makes the tax more palatable, but I wonder if it's enough. Both consumption and the population are in decline. The workforce is smaller and being paid less, and Japan's elderly aren't all that interested in shopping. If times were good, the slow increase makes sense, but as you say, the government is eyeing a 12% increase to meet its obligations, which leads me to believe they need a lot of money and fast. I think the days where declining tax revenues are the norm are upon Japan. They are going to have to get used to operating with less revenue because the days of high consumption are over for Japan.
Shawn
Add new comment